Tropical Storm Erin Moving Across Open Atlantic, Expected to Become First Major Hurricane of Season

NHC Center predicts Category 3 hurricane or stronger as it nears the northern Caribbean and Bahamas

Tropical Storm Erin, currently moving across the open Atlantic, is projected to intensify into the season’s first hurricane by Thursday and could reach major hurricane strength by the weekend, forecasters say. (NHC image)

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER – Tropical Storm Erin, currently moving across the open Atlantic, is projected to intensify into the season’s first hurricane by Thursday and could reach major hurricane strength by the weekend, forecasters say.

Early Tuesday, the system was located about 750 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, packing maximum sustained winds near 45 mph while racing west at 22 mph. Satellite imagery showed Erin shrouded in Saharan dust, which has temporarily slowed its development.

However, its thunderstorm activity has become more organized since Monday, suggesting steady strengthening ahead.

Meteorologists say Erin’s exact path remains uncertain, but two possible scenarios are emerging. A more northerly track could steer the storm into the open Atlantic, potentially threatening Bermuda while sparing the U.S. East Coast. A more southerly route would bring the system closer to the northern Caribbean, the Bahamas, and possibly parts of eastern North America, including the United States and Canada.

The key factor shaping Erin’s route will be the Bermuda high, a dominant Atlantic high-pressure system currently guiding the storm westward.

If the high strengthens and shifts west, Erin could move closer to land. A weaker Bermuda high, on the other hand, would allow the system to curve north and remain mostly at sea.

Forecasters are also watching unusually warm waters in the western Atlantic, where a marine heat wave is in place. These conditions could fuel rapid intensification later this week, raising the potential for Erin to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane or stronger as it nears the northern Caribbean and Bahamas.

While any direct land impacts are unlikely before the weekend, residents of the Leeward Islands, Bahamas, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and eastern Canada are advised to closely monitor updates. Meteorologists expect greater clarity on Erin’s track by midweek as more atmospheric data becomes available.

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